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Her vulnerability to Sanders’ more authentic populism remains troubling, however, for a frontrunner who lost to Obama eight years ago and has yet to ignite the excitement that a potential first female president might expect.īut on the assumption that harsh political reality will eventually overcome the anger on the right and idealism on the left, it is possible to see a plausible narrative emerging for 2016. But it has barely begun in the minds of the electorate, who have until 4 November to make a choice that will reverberate around the world.īarack Obama’s natural heir in the Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, is a surer bet: safely ahead now of the leftwing challenger Bernie Sanders in the polls and showing more resilience in the face of once worrying email allegations. The battle for the White House – which has already been raging in the media for months – will undoubtedly dominate. Predicting the course of US politics over the next 12 months is a mug’s game. Or maybe that’s just too over-optimistic. Who knows, perhaps we will even start to realise that happiness does not reside in social media, and 2015 will go down as the year of peak-share. We might not get to 11 billion people after all.Īnd away from the headlines, the overwhelming majority of people will continue to lead decent, unremarkable lives undeflected by the pulses of pessimism that tend to pollute our overall sense of wellbeing. The powerful mixture of birth control and rising prosperity that levelled off birth rates in western societies in the postwar period will continue to take root in Africa, putting downward pressure on overall population levels. Science will tell us more than we ever knew about our ancestors, ourselves and our universe. Elections for two of the top jobs in the world – in the US and at the UN – could produce women in both for the first time. And while the Koreas are unlikely to reunify, Cyprus might. There will actually be fewer wars in 2016 than for many years. But let’s leave room for a little optimism.